We’re entering year two of the Thursday night NFL draft experience and judging by last year’s ratings, this weekday event is here to stay. After free agency, the draft stands as one of the last hurdles for sports bettors and fantasy players to start scouting teams for next year. With certain draft props being offered, I say why wait until the preseason to begin your NFL betting season, here’s how we’re going to make money on the draft.
Will Trent Richardson Be Drafted #5 To Tampa Bay? Yes+200, No-330.
Obviously, Vegas is banking on a no here. The Bucs have LeGarrette Blount who had a great rookie season but digressed last year. Tampa could take Richardson here but only if he gets past Cleveland at #4. The Browns need to bolster their ground attack to grind out games with division foes Baltimore and Pittsburgh and to take pressure off Colt McCoy. Cleveland GM Mike Holmgren could opt for WR Justin Blackmon in this spot to give somebody for McCoy to throw to but then Tampa Bay would still have to pass on CB Morris Claiborne, who they’re very high on. The odds are pretty slim on a “yes” bet here.
How Many QB’s Will Be Selected In Round 1? Over 3.5+150, Under 3.5 -200.
This bet is basically stating will Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins or Brandon Wheeden be selected in the first round because Andrew Luck, RGIII, and Ryan Tannehill are top 10 locks. The only chance for the over to hit here would be for Cleveland to select Brandon Wheeden with their second first round pick (#22). If the Browns get Trent Richardson at #4 and Wheeden later on they’d have some real bright spots on offense for the future when you take into consideration Greg Little at WR from last year. I also wouldn’t put a QB out of Denver’s reach at #25 and all you need is one surprise for this over to hit. I’d take the over for +150.
How Many RB’s Will Go In Round 1? Over 1.5 +120, Under 1.5 -160
Once again, Richardson is a lock so all you need is one extra team to take a RB for this over to hit. There are actually two other 1st round rated RB’s in this class in Doug Martin (Boise State) and David Wilson (Virginia Tech). The Giants could take a RB at #32 after losing Brandon Jacobs and the Patriots will trade either pick #27 or #31 to a team that could possibly want to sneak in front of the Giants to select a RB. Take the over in this bet as well.
Will Ryan Tannehill Go To The Dolphins At #8? Yes -200, No+160
This seems to be the popular pick for most mock draft analysts as new Dolphin coordinator Mike Sherman was Tannehill’s coach at Texas A&M. That being said, playing in the AFC East could weight heavily on who Miami actually picks here. They need somebody to put pressure on division QB’s Tom Brady and…Tim Tebow and this year’s draft class is heavy on pass rushers. Also, now that Buffalo has Mario Williams coming around the end, each team in the AFC East needs to reevaluate their offensive line status. Plus, from what I’ve heard picks 3-10 are supposed to get caught in a windstorm and a number of players could slide up and down depending on trades. I’d definitely feel more confident with a no bet here.
Which Player Will Be Picked First? Morris Claiborne -350, Justin Blackmon +225.
I’ve heard Claiborne going from anywhere at #3 to the Vikings to out of the top 10. Taking Blackmon here is simply a value bet as the Vikings might be looking to trade out of #3 and some teams view Blackmon as an elite WR prospect. You can’t pass the +225 bet here.
If you win money on some of these players, you’ll have an instant bond with them for life…or until they drop a pass, fumble, or throw a pick to cost you money down the line…which they will. At least the Jets fans will be entertaining.