There’s on off track betting spot that I pass every day on my commute and even though I’ve never been much of a horse player, today that place reeled me in. There’s something special about the Kentucky Derby apart from the funky hats and the mint juleps and there’s almost an aura surrounding the event. From research and gut feelings, here are the 138th Kentucky Derby bets.
The Kentucky Derby is a 2-minute race, the fastest 2 minutes in sports to be exact (not counting a Tim Tebow 2-minute drill.) With so much happening in only a mile and a quarter, starting position is of utmost importance. With 20 horses in the 138th Kentucky Derby Field, things are going to be crowded. This means that whether you’re in the middle of the pack or on the rails, you’ve got to have a good jockey manning the reins. A likely favorite to win the roses in 2012 is Take Charge Indy, jockeyed by experienced vet Calvin Borel. Calvin “Bo-Rail” will be right at home starting in the 3 spot as he has earned a living riding that inside rail. Another favorite I’ll Have Another (10:1) might struggle starting on the outside at #19, even though it’s a perfect name for Cinco de Mayo drinking celebrations.
Trying to stay on top of gambling on football, baseball, basketball, hockey, golf, nascar, and American Idol doesn’t leave much time to follow the horses. There are plenty of experts that are pony savants and what the NFL Draft is to Mel Kiper, Jr., the Kentucky Derby is to these fellows. Most of the experts have a consensus 4-pack on who will win place and show and they include Union Rags (4.5:1), I’ll Have Another (10:1), Take Charge Indy (12:1), and Gemologist (8:1). To a T, these experts have these 4 horses winning in some way or another, as almost not to want to be alienated from the pro’s in their field (Imagine a weatherman successfully predicting a blizzard in South Beach, Florida.) Other expert picks include Bodemeister (6:1) and Dullahan (10:1).
I’ve bet Kentucky Derby’s in the past and as easy as it would be to piggy-back on the supposed experts, anything can happen in the Run For The Roses. In the past 7 years, two 50:1 longshots have been crowned Kentucky Derby champions (Giacomo 2005, Mine That Bird 2009). Correctly picking one of them could cover your Derby bets for 5-10 years. In my book, you have much more to lose by riding favorites who underperform than you do by going out on a limb on a horse that looks scraggly, weak, and generally uninterested. Riding a horse with a cool name like Sabercat (30:1) or taking one with great odds like Prospective (55:1) or Rousing Sermon (40:1) can make for a nice little Saturday when they come out on top.
Finally, here is our 138th Kentucky Derby Betting Ticket (odds courtesy Sportsbook.com):
Sabercat To Win 30:1 ($20) – Going strictly with a cool name and good odds here
Top 3 Finish : Liaison 15:1 ($10) - Mexican jockey Martin Garcia riding on Cinco de Mayo? He’ll either be excited and motivated…or drunk
Top 3 Finish : Take Charge Indy +250 ($120) – I don’t see Calvin Borel finishing outside the top 3, especially starting at home in spot 3.
What Will The 138th Kentucky Derby Winner’s Name Start With? N-Z +160 $50 – An interesting prop bet that gets you Union Rags, Take Charge Indy, & 6 other mid to long shots.
Will The Kentucky Derby Winners Name Start With AEIOU? Yes +175 ($50) – Another valuable prop bet that includes favorites Union Rags and I’ll Have Another as well as Alpha, Optimizer, and El Padrino.
Kentucky Derby Matchup: Hansen vs. Creative Case. Pick Hansen +105 $50 – Pretty even match with #8 vs. #14 and 10:1 vs. 12:1 so just taking the better odds.Mmmmbop
There you have it, $300 worth of bets that can be completely destroyed by Bodemeister or Gemologist winning the Derby so now I don’t have to tell you who to take (wink wink). Enjoy the 138th Kentucky Derby everybody, and props to the first person who mixes a Mint Julep & Margarita together.